By Madara Dias, MHR Program, University of Manitoba
Date: June 10, 2025
The Indo-Pacific region stands at a crossroads, poised to become the most consequential geopolitical arena of the 21st century. With rapid military build-ups, shifting alliances, and intensifying great-power rivalries, the future of this vast and diverse region promises to be marked by complexity, challenge, and opportunity. The dynamics shaping the Indo-Pacific today will not only determine regional stability but also the global balance of power for decades to come.
Rising Military Build-ups and Strategic Competition
A defining feature of the Indo-Pacific’s future is the accelerated modernization and expansion of military capabilities by key regional players. India, for example, is rapidly developing one of the world’s largest and most advanced navies. With ambitions to expand its fleet to 175 ships, including a formidable array of submarines, India seeks to assert maritime dominance and counterbalance China’s expanding naval presence. This naval expansion is driven by India’s need to protect its vast coastline, secure key maritime trade routes, and assert its strategic interests across the Indian Ocean and beyond.
Parallel to India’s efforts, the United States continues to reinforce its presence through the rotation of naval assets at critical maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca and the Bab-el-Mandeb. These deployments aim to ensure freedom of navigation and maintain the security of vital sea lanes that facilitate a significant portion of global trade. The US is also deepening its strategic commitments via multilateral alliances such as AUKUS, which is a trilateral security pact involving Australia, the UK, and the US, and the Quad, an informal security dialogue that brings together the US, India, Japan, and Australia. These alliances represent a collective push to counterbalance China’s assertiveness and maintain a rules-based maritime order.
On the other side of this spectrum, China is steadfastly expanding its strategic reach through its “string of pearls” strategy. This involves developing deep-sea ports and dual-use infrastructure stretching across key maritime nodes, from Gwadar in Pakistan to Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukphyu in Myanmar. These facilities are not merely commercial hubs but hold significant military and strategic value, enabling China to project naval power deep into the Indian Ocean. China’s growing footprint challenges the traditional dominance of India and the US in this vital region, raising concerns about a shift in regional power balances.
Diplomatic Arenas and Multilateral Engagements
While military posturing defines much of the strategic landscape, the Indo-Pacific’s future will also hinge heavily on diplomatic recalibrations. Regional forums like the Quad Leaders’ Summit, ASEAN Indo-Pacific dialogues, and ongoing peace negotiations in Myanmar will serve as critical platforms for cooperation.
The Quad, initially conceptualized as a diplomatic mechanism to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific, is evolving into a more structured strategic coalition. It facilitates dialogue on security, technology, climate, and economic development. ASEAN forums, meanwhile, continue to emphasize regional integration and conflict management, though ASEAN’s unity is frequently tested by competing interests among its member states and external powers.
Myanmar remains a particularly sensitive issue. The country’s prolonged conflict and political instability, combined with its strategic location, make it a focal point for regional diplomacy. Myanmar peace negotiations provide a litmus test for the ability of Indo-Pacific actors to engage constructively and stabilize a critical part of Southeast Asia.
Bangladesh’s Crucial Role: A Geopolitical Pivot
At the heart of this evolving Indo-Pacific order lies Bangladesh as a country that, despite its modest size, occupies an outsized geopolitical position. Bangladesh’s foreign policy decisions, particularly in managing the Rohingya refugee crisis, trade alignments, and military cooperation, will have significant regional repercussions.
Bangladesh is navigating a delicate balance between competing visions for the region. On one hand, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) spearheaded by China offers lucrative infrastructure investments and connectivity prospects. On the other, the Indo-Pacific concept promoted by the US and its allies emphasizes a free, open, and rules-based regional order that implicitly challenges China’s ambitions.
The country’s choices in this geopolitical tug-of-war will influence the broader regional cohesion. For instance, how Bangladesh manages the Rohingya refugee situation with Myanmar, engages with Chinese infrastructure projects, and aligns its defense partnerships will reverberate beyond its borders. Bangladesh could become a bridge fostering regional integration or, conversely, a fault line exacerbating divisions.
The Broader Contest: G7, BRICS, and Global Blocs
Beyond regional dynamics, the Indo-Pacific is increasingly shaped by competing global economic and ideological blocs. The G7 and BRICS now represent diverging poles in global governance. The G7, consisting largely of Western industrialized nations, champions democratic governance, market economies, and a liberal international order. In contrast, BRICS which is comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa that offers an alternative model that emphasizes sovereignty, multipolarity, and often critiques Western dominance.
These blocs influence the Indo-Pacific’s trajectory by shaping economic partnerships, development financing, and diplomatic alliances. For instance, China’s leadership within BRICS allows it to push back against Western-led sanctions or strategic containment. Meanwhile, G7 countries, often in concert with Quad members, seek to promote transparency, rule of law, and democratic norms.
At the heart of this is a fundamental debate over containment versus interdependency. Some countries and analysts advocate for policies aimed at containing China’s rise through military deterrence and economic decoupling. Others emphasize the dangers of such bifurcation and argue for pragmatic engagement, highlighting the economic interdependence among major powers.
The path the Indo-Pacific takes on this spectrum will have profound implications. A move toward containment risks escalation and conflict, while deeper interdependency requires robust mechanisms to manage rivalry without compromising sovereignty or security.
Managing Complexity: The New Imperative
The question shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific is no longer simply who holds military supremacy, but rather who can best manage complexity by balancing power, avoiding conflict escalation, and fostering inclusive regional cooperation.
This demands diplomatic dexterity, innovative multilateralism, and recognition of the region’s diverse realities. Countries will need to engage not just in traditional security dialogues but also in addressing economic connectivity, climate change, technological governance, and humanitarian challenges.
The Indo-Pacific region’s future will be shaped by how well its actors can navigate these overlapping challenges. Success will hinge on avoiding zero-sum mentalities and embracing frameworks that accommodate diversity and promote stability.
A Region in Flux, A Future Unwritten
As a conclusion, the Indo-Pacific is entering a phase marked by both opportunity and risk. The accelerating military build-ups by India, the US, and China underline the growing stakes involved. Simultaneously, diplomatic forums and multilateral groupings offer pathways to cooperation that could mitigate tensions.
Countries like Bangladesh embody the region’s geopolitical complexity, as they must make difficult choices amid competing visions of order and influence. The ongoing contest between global blocs further layers the challenge with economic and ideological dimensions.
Ultimately, the Indo-Pacific’s future depends less on any single country’s dominance and more on the collective ability to manage this intricate web of military, diplomatic, economic, and social factors. How this plays out will determine not only regional peace but the broader shape of international relations in the decades ahead.
What Can Be Done? Navigating the Indo-Pacific’s Complex Future
As the Indo-Pacific region hurtles toward an uncertain future, proactive steps by regional actors, global powers, and multilateral institutions are essential to promote stability and shared prosperity. There are key actions that can help shape a more peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific:
- Strengthen Multilateral Diplomacy and Dialogue- Building trust and cooperation through established forums like the Quad, ASEAN, and broader Indo-Pacific dialogues is vital. These platforms must move beyond rhetoric and deliver concrete agreements on security, trade, climate, and humanitarian issues. Expanding inclusive participation to emerging regional actors and civil society will bolster legitimacy and effectiveness.
- Promote Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures- To reduce the risk of miscalculations or unintended escalation, regional navies and militaries should engage in confidence-building mechanisms, share information, and establish communication hotlines. Transparency around military developments can ease anxieties and pave the way for more predictable interactions.
- Support Responsible Infrastructure and Economic Development- Countries like Bangladesh need sustainable and transparent investment models that avoid debt traps and safeguard sovereignty. International financial institutions and partners should offer alternatives that emphasize good governance, environmental standards, and equitable growth.
- Address Humanitarian and Refugee Challenges Collaboratively- Resolving the Rohingya crisis and similar humanitarian issues requires coordinated regional responses that uphold human rights, provide safe repatriation options, and support host communities. Diplomatic efforts must continue alongside development aid and protection mechanisms.
- Embrace Multipolar Cooperation Over Zero-Sum Competition- Rather than falling into rigid containment or decoupling strategies, states should explore pragmatic cooperation in areas like climate change, public health, and technology governance. A multipolar order that encourages dialogue and interdependence can reduce conflict risks and unlock shared opportunities.
- Invest in Regional Capacity-Building and Connectivity- Empowering smaller states with the resources, technology, and training to engage confidently in regional affairs strengthens resilience and integration. Connectivity initiatives of both physical and digital should prioritize inclusivity and sustainability.
By committing to these pathways, stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific can move beyond rivalry and confrontation to build a stable, prosperous region that benefits all its peoples. The challenges ahead are complex, but with collective vision and resolve, the Indo-Pacific’s future can be one of cooperation, security, and shared progress. The next blog will discuss how Indo-Pacific relations can effectively contribute to solving the Rohingya crisis. Stay tuned.