By Madara Dias, MHR Program, University of Manitoba
Date: July 23, 2025
In a world increasingly marked by forced displacement and humanitarian crises, the story of the Rohingya people continues to resonate as one of the most prolonged and devastating. Victims of systemic persecution, statelessness, and ethnic cleansing in their native Myanmar, the Rohingya now face yet another threat, particularly not from bullets or boats, but from budgets.
A new UNHCR report, On the Brink: The Devastating Toll of Aid Cuts on People Forced to Flee, underscores a growing emergency, as over 11.6 million refugees globally are at risk of losing access to vital humanitarian assistance due to unprecedented aid shortfalls. Among them, nearly one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, who’s already among the world’s most marginalized communities stand at a precipice.
A brief context on the Rohingya Crisis
The Rohingya are a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority group from Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Despite their centuries-long presence in the region, they have been denied citizenship under Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law, effectively rendering them stateless. Systematic discrimination has resulted in restrictions on movement, limited access to education and healthcare, and frequent episodes of violence.
The largest and most brutal episode occurred in 2017, when a military crackdown which described by the United Nations as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing” which forced over 700,000 Rohingya to flee into neighboring Bangladesh. Today, around 960,000 Rohingya reside in Cox’s Bazar, now the world’s largest refugee settlement. Another 140,000 remain internally displaced within Myanmar, confined to squalid camps with no pathway to resettlement.
For years, their future has remained uncertain: repatriation is politically unviable, resettlement options are limited, and long-term integration is often resisted by host communities. Now, a deepening funding crisis may make their temporary lives even more precarious.
Funding Freefall: Global Crisis, Local Devastation
The UNHCR’s “On the Brink” report offers a grim picture of the world’s response to forced displacement. As of mid-2025, only 23% of the agency’s total budget which is approximately $3.5 billion of the $15 billion needed, had been funded. This leaves an enormous $11.5 billion gap that will have immediate and far-reaching consequences for refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) across the globe.
More than $1.4 billion worth of programs have already been put on hold. This includes cuts to shelter, food distribution, healthcare, protection services, and education as pillars of survival in refugee life. The implications are particularly dire in large-scale, protracted refugee contexts like Bangladesh.
The Rohingya in Bangladesh: Bearing the Brunt
In Bangladesh, where over half of the Rohingya population are children, the impact of aid cuts is stark. According to the report:
- 230,000 Rohingya children are at risk of losing access to education programs.
- Support for gender-based violence (GBV) prevention and response has been slashed by 25%, severely undermining protection for vulnerable women and girls.
- Food insecurity is worsening as rations are already reduced and face further cuts. Refugee households now receive only $8 per person per month in food vouchers, down from $12 in 2022.
The education crisis is particularly alarming. The current informal education system in the camps are supported by UNHCR, UNICEF, and various NGOs and they are already suffers from a lack of certified teachers, overcrowded classrooms, and limited curriculum offerings. The Myanmar Curriculum Pilot (MCP), which was launched to prepare children for eventual repatriation, could be halted altogether if funds do not materialize. This will rob a generation of children of the chance to rebuild their futures, whether in Myanmar or beyond.
Regional Implications: Fragility and Frustration
Beyond the humanitarian emergency, the funding shortfall has serious geopolitical ramifications.
Countries like Bangladesh, already under economic strain, find themselves shouldering the burden of a crisis not of their own making. The diminishing international commitment raises frustration among host communities, who perceive that they are being left alone to manage the fallout of regional instability.
Moreover, the lack of investment in sustainable refugee responses increases the risk of radicalization, trafficking, and social unrest. A young, disenfranchised population with no access to education or livelihoods creates fertile ground for exploitation by militant networks or transnational criminal groups operating in the region.
A Humanitarian Paradox: More Needs, Less Money
What makes this moment particularly jarring is the contradiction at its heart which forced displacement is at a historic high, yet humanitarian funding is at a historic low.
According to the UNHCR, the total number of displaced people has now surpassed 122 million worldwide, which includes a figure driven by conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. Yet donor fatigue, competing crises, and shifting political priorities have reduced the capacity of traditional donors to maintain previous funding levels.
The UNHCR itself is undergoing painful internal restructuring, with plans to cut 3,500 staff positions globally. Operations in Geneva and regional hubs are being scaled back, limiting the agency’s ability to respond rapidly and effectively.
What Needs to Happen
The On the Brink report calls for urgent, sustained donor commitments, especially from traditional funding partners such as the European Union, United States, Canada, Japan, and the Gulf states. But beyond financial pledges, a more equitable and durable global response is needed.
- Expand donor base: Emerging economies and private sector actors must be brought into the humanitarian financing ecosystem.
2. Invest in resilience: Education, livelihoods, and health systems need long-term funding, but not just emergency relief.
3. Empower host states: Countries like Bangladesh should receive greater development assistance to integrate refugees more sustainably.
4. Political solutions: Ultimately, accountability for Myanmar’s military and a roadmap for safe, voluntary repatriation remain essential to resolving the crisis.
Conclusion:
For the Rohingya and millions like them, humanitarian aid is not charity, but it is a lifeline. The international community now stands at a crossroads: will it choose to uphold its commitment to human dignity, or retreat behind the walls of budget constraints and political expediency?
If this funding crisis is not addressed swiftly, the consequences will echo far beyond the camps of Cox’s Bazar. They will be felt in classrooms that never open, in families that go without food, in girls denied safety, and in communities that lose faith in international solidarity.
As the world navigates growing displacement, climate shocks, and political fragmentation, the fate of the Rohingya will be a test of our collective conscience.